🍂 Fall Contest '26 $3,000 to whoever's most right about the world. One thesis, free to enter. Starts in —D —H —M Enter your thesis →
Thesis

What actually predicts price is being right about the world.

You already have a view on where the world is going. Here, it becomes trades — and a public record of whether you were right.

Make your worldview count → Browse what people believe
Free to start · browse without signing up · ▶ watch the 2-minute film
Contest Worldviews Top theses Live
● Live entries in the Fall Contest — look around before you sign up
🍂 Contest entry · leading
⛩️ Kenji · The Shogunentered Sep 20 · verified 👑 #1
“The yen's collapse forces Japanese savers home — domestic reflation runs harder than anyone models.”
EWJ LONG DXJ LONG 8306.T LONG FXY SHORT
+19.4%day 43 of 90
🍂 Contest entry
🏆 Priya · The Aurelianentered Sep 21 · verified #2
“Central banks keep buying gold and fiat keeps debasing. Gold breaks $5,000 within 18 months.”
GLD LONG GDX LONG TLT SHORT
+16.8%day 42 of 90
🔮 Elena · The Visionaryentered Sep 22 #3
“AI compute is structurally underpriced — the data-center buildout has another decade to run.”
NVDA LONG SMH LONG
+14.1%day 41 of 90
🦅 Tom · The Falconentered Sep 23 #4
“Europe's energy crunch never really ended — it just stopped making headlines.”
UNG LONG FEZ SHORT
+12.9%day 40 of 90
🐺 Marcus · The Wolfentered Sep 24 #8
“Commercial real estate is the crisis everyone stopped watching.”
SRS LONG VNQ SHORT
−2.3%day 39 of 90
● Beliefs people are backing right now
🌏 Worldview1,240 believers +18% avg
“The West declines under regulation and demographics while capital and talent flow into Japan and the East.”
🪙 Worldview860 believers +22% avg
“Central banks keep buying gold and fiat keeps debasing — the monetary order is quietly repricing.”
⚡ Worldview2,100 believers +29% avg
“AI compute demand structurally outstrips supply through 2027 — the buildout has a decade to run.”
🏛️ Worldview540 believers +9% avg
“Europe stagnates under its own rules — the growth has left and it isn't coming back.”
● The best-performing calls on Thesis
🏆 Priya · The Aureliancalled 5 months ago #1
“Central banks are hoarding gold like it's 1971 again — the debasement trade has years left.”
GLD LONG GDX LONG
+38%since called · 512 taking this
⛩️ Kenji · The Shoguncalled 4 months ago #2
“Japan is the trade of the decade — the West declines while capital flows East.”
EWJ LONG EUR/JPY SHORT
+31%since called · 288 taking this
🔬 Sofia · The Empiricistcalled 6 months ago #3
“Chip bans accelerate China's domestic semiconductors by a decade, not slow them.”
SMH LONG ASML SHORT
+27%since called · 176 taking this
🔮 Elena · The Visionarycalled 3 months ago #7
“Uranium re-rates hard as the world quietly admits nuclear is the only baseload that scales.”
URA LONG CCJ LONG
+19%since called · 94 taking this
● Happening on Thesis right now
🐺 Marcus entered the Fall Contest with a commercial-real-estate short. 2m ago
🏆 Priya's gold thesis crossed +30% since she called it. 14m ago
⛩️ Kenji took Elena's AI-compute thesis onto his own book. 1h ago
🔮 Elena published a new thesis: “Uranium re-rates in 2026.” 2h ago
🦅 Tom climbed to #4 on the contest leaderboard. 3h ago
How it works

From worldview to portfolio.

01 — SAY IT
Trump will save ruin America

Express it. However controversial.

Type a belief in plain language — politics, tech, music, anything. Pick a side. That's a thesis.

02 — TRADE IT
IWM LONG
Russell 2000 · domestic small caps
calls · the made-in-America re-rate

Thesis finds the trade.

Real tickers, real structures — the companies your belief actually touches, even when you don't know the symbol. One tap to place it with your broker.

03 — PROVE IT
MAR 12 Japan reflation runs hot +31%
MAY 21 AI capex peaks in 2026 −18%
BROKER-VERIFIED RECORD

Your record is public. Forever.

Every call dated and verified by your broker — not screenshots. Right or wrong, it stays on your page.

Modes

One belief. Four ways to run it.

“Trump will save America,” re-expressed at whatever depth you trade at. It doesn't tell you what to think — it tells you what your thinking is worth.

✦ ULTRA
Deeper. The trade behind the trade.
NUE · tariff walls re-rate steel
CSX · reshoring moves by rail
HIGH CONVICTION
Only the violent expression of the view.
IWM · deep-OTM calls, sized up
DJT · the pure-faith expression
▦ INSTITUTIONAL
The way a desk would express it.
2s10s STEEPENER · at size
MX CDS · protection on tariffs
◎ WORLDVIEW-AWARE
Every trade filtered through everything else you believe.
trims IWM for your rates view
hedges the deficit you also fear
The feed

A social network built on performance. Not noise.

1
Every call is public and timestamped.
No deleting the bad ones. The feed is the résumé.
2
Take the other side in one tap.
Disagree? Short it — your money against theirs, tracked side by side.
3
Records verified by brokers. Not screenshots.
Connect Robinhood, IBKR, Schwab or Alpaca — the numbers are real.
🧭 June The Scout · 2h DAY 1 · LIVE
“Taylor Swift's next album breaks the record.”
UMG.AS LONG LYV LONG SPOT LONG HYBE SHORT
⛩️
Kenji The Shogun
Streaming pull-forward is already priced. The record is the top, not the catalyst. Fading this.
🐺
Marcus The Wolf
The LYV leg is the smart one. The album isn't the trade — the tour it triggers is.
Buy — long Sell — short
🍂 Fall Contest '26

$3,000 to whoever's most right about the world.

One thesis, free to enter. Submit before the bell — when it rings, your thesis runs for 90 days on a public, broker-verified clock. Winner takes all.

Enter your thesis → Starts in —D —H —M
LAST FALL'S PODIUM
👑 Kenji · The Shogun+41.8%
② Priya · The Aurelian+16.8%
③ Marcus · The Wolf+11.2%
284 entries and counting this season.